The Premier League sits out this weekend as the FA Cup takes centre stage, so it's a good time to assess the title race - and the credentials of each of the five contenders.
Arsenal
Arsenal sit 2nd in the Premier League, remain in both the FA Cup and the UEFA Champions League, and are through to the final of the Carling Cup. The latter may be seen as the least important of the bunch but the significance of winning the Carling Cup shouldn’t be underestimated. Lifting any trophy breeds confidence, something which is crucial heading into the Premier League title run-in. Their convincing victory over Chelsea was vital in proving they can beat the top sides - something often thrown at them by critics. The return of Robin van Persie and the form of Samir Nasri are other positives for Arsene Wenger’s side who remain Manchester United’s closest challengers.Reasons to be optimistic
Causes for concern
Defensively, Arsenal still have problems. They lack a leader in their back four - a John Terry or a Nemanja Vidic figure. Thomas Vermaelen’s return from injury will be a boost but both Laurent Koscielny and Sebastien Squillaci have struggled to adapt to the Premier League, and the North London side look vulnerable when defending set pieces. Recent seasons have seen Arsenal involved in the title race but drift away as the season enters into late March/April, but Arsene Wenger will hope his side, now with more experience, can last the full season and pip their rivals to what would be their 4th Premier League title.
What do they need?
Wenger will be pleased with the depth of his squad, but may want to pick up a centre half before the January transfer window shuts. The goalkeeping area has also been subject to debate but Wojciech Szczesny has impressed in recent weeks and has probably done enough to ease Wenger’s concerns.
Premier League prediction
2nd - Having already played Chelsea and Manchester City twice, the Gunners’ only two games left against their title rivals are at home to Manchester United and away to Tottenham. Despite this, I predict that they’ll come up just short, but 2nd would reflect a decent season for Arsenal, especially if they can add a trophy or two.
Chelsea
Reasons to be optimistic
A fantastic start to the season saw the Blues five points clear of the chasing group in late October, but a poor run of results has seen them slip to 4th, 10 points adrift of the leaders. One thing Chelsea do have on their side is experience, and I don’t just mean players in their 30s. They have been involved in these title races since 2005, and in those 6 Premier League seasons they went on to win half of them. Back to back wins against Blackburn and Bolton appears to have lifted the squad and management, and they will believe they still have a chance of lifting the Premier League trophy. Remaining fixtures include Manchester United (h&a), Tottenham (h) and Manchester City (h), and 12 points from those would stand them in good stead. This will be largely dependent on whether the likes of Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard can re-produce the form they’ve shown in seasons gone by.
Causes for concern
An obvious worry is their form - only four wins in 13 games since the start of November. In the long-term however, Chelsea must be concerned with the age of their squad. There’s nothing wrong with having experienced players, in fact it’s a very helpful thing to have - but Chelsea’s problem is that the vast majority of their best players are approaching the end of their careers at the top level. John Terry, Florent Malouda and Ashley Cole are all 30, Nicolas Anelka is 31, and their biggest goal threats Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard are 32. This creates problems on the field for the Blues, but perhaps more notably off the field. The value of those players decrease as each season goes by, and when the time comes to replace them, Roman Abramovic won’t be the beneficiary of huge transfers sums for his top players. Instead, he will have to stump up significant amounts of cash to keep Chelsea at the top.
What do they need?
Quite simply, Roman Abramovic needs to give Carlo Ancelotti time. Chelsea are fast approaching an important transitional period and it’s vital not to be swapping managers like underwear. Arsenal and Manchester United have benefited from this and Chelsea need to follow suit. There aren’t any specific areas that the Blues need to strengthen in, just to try and buy relatively younger players and reinforce competition for places.
Premier League prediction
3rd - I’d back to them to beat Manchester United at Stamford Bridge but can’t see them pipping the Red Devils to the title. They are bound to improve in this second half of the season but it could be too little, too late.
Manchester City
Reasons to be optimistic
Manchester City have a huge and talented squad. I wouldn’t quite go along with Mario Balotelli’s latest claim that they are better than Barcelona, but they are clearly a club on the up and with the financial power to attract the world’s biggest stars. City have looked solid defensively this season, conceding just 20 goals in their 24 games -and any team that possesses Carlos Tevez, Edin Dzeko and Mario Balotelli has the potential to score goals at the other end. Arguably the biggest plus for Roberto Mancini however is David Silva - a player who struggled to adapt to the Premier League early on but the Spaniard seems to have settled in recent months. City have plenty of steel in midfield with Gareth Barry, Nigel de Jong and Yaya Toure, but Silva gives City flair and creativity. City are still involved in the FA Cup and Europa League, and will be desperate to prevent the banner of their local rivals being raised to 35, representing the number of years since they last won a trophy.
Causes for concern
As I’ve argued previously, I think they’re too defensive against the other top teams - namely their home game with Manchester United and away at Arsenal. It would’ve been understandable three or four years ago but with the millions spent by the owners they should be going to places like the Emirates and playing for all three points. The togetherness of the squad has also been called into question, but that largely stems from players who aren’t playing regularly. Wayne Bridge and Emmanuel Adebayor have already left on loan, while Shaun Wright-Phillips looks on his way out before transfer deadline day. A winning team is usually a happy team so Mancini knows what’s needed
What do they need?
They need to stop buying players. It must be tempting with the spending power they have, but their squad is already good enough to win a Premier League title - they just need time to gel together properly and create the sort of team spirit that their other rivals have. Constantly bringing in players and letting others go won’t have a positive effect, and soon they will have to comply with Michel Platini’s new financial fair play rule, which comes into effect in 2013.
Premier League prediction
4th - It seems only a matter of time before they do lift the Premier League title but I can’t see it being this year. Need time to develop as a squad and it takes time. 4th place would of course mean Champions League football for City and would show improvement from last year, where they could only finish 5th.
Manchester United
Reasons to be optimistic
A fairly obvious one - United haven’t tasted defeat in the Premier League since April. Their home form this season has been very impressive, with 11 wins and one draw, and in the less impressive performances they’ve shown the resilience and character to avoid defeat. As ever with United, late goals have been the theme for their season - Stoke, Wolves (twice), West Brom, Bolton, Liverpool and Aston Villa have all been on the receiving end of United’s late winners/equalisers, not to mention their comeback in Tuesday’s thrilling match at Bloomfield Road. Javier Hernandez and Chris Smalling are proving to be good acquisitions, and Dimitar Berbatov has finally found his scoring boots.
Causes for concern
10 months is a long time in football, just ask Wayne Rooney. The United forward was immense for the Reds last season but has only managed two goals in open play since March 2010. Thankfully Dimitar Berbatov has taken the goal-scoring weight off Rooney’s shoulders, and there are signs that the former Everton man is getting somewhere near his best. Although United are still unbeaten so far, they have only managed 3 wins on the road, and that’s an area where Sir Alex Ferguson will be looking for improvement.
What do they need?
United could be accused of under-spending in recent transfer windows, but it’s feasible that Ferguson has been saving up for the impending retirements of Edwin Van Der Sar, Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes. It is unknown whether the latter two will play on for one more season but we should expect to see quite a few additions in the summer transfer window regardless. All the other top 4 have an attacking central midfielder, a talisman who can both score and create goals. (Cesc Fabregas, David Silva, Frank Lampard, Rafael van der Vaart). Paul Scholes has had that job for a while but he can no longer play week in week out. Darren Fletcher, Anderson and Michael Carrick are all good players but none can be labelled an attacking midfielder.
Premier League prediction
1st - The ability to win whilst not playing well, the number of late goals they score and the experience of both the manager and the playing squad should be enough to see United overtake Liverpool on league title victories. It’s certainly not a forgone conclusion though - they still have Chelsea to play twice, City to play at Old Trafford and make trips to the Emirates Stadium and Anfield. I think if United can take 10-12 points from those six games they’ll go on to lift the Premier League. And I don’t think they’ll care a jot if they have to suffer defeat somewhere along the way.
Tottenham Hotspur
Reasons to be optimistic
Arguably, Tottenham possess the best midfield in England. Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon are explosive players on either flank while Luka Modric and Rafael van der Vaart could quite easily walk into any other side in the country. Add to that Tom Huddlestone, Steven Pienaar and Wilson Palacios and it’s fair to say they have both quality and depth. William Gallas has brought experience to the back line, particularly in European games, and they have a fantastic manager in Harry Redknapp. Daniel Levy appears to back the manager when he’s called upon and Spurs have a great foundation to build on over the next few years. Already shown they can cut it against the top sides, beating Arsenal away, and defeating both Chelsea and Internazionale at the Lane.
Causes for concern
Spurs have the worst defensive record out of the current top 5. I recognise that this is in part due to their style of play, they attack the opposition from the word go and tend to be involved in high scoring games. But when I look at the Rio Ferdinand-Nemanja Vidic partnership, or John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic, I don’t see Tottenham having that quality in their back four. Spurs have done fantastically well to top their Champions League group, but I think still being involved in Europe might be more a hindrance than a help. United, Chelsea and Arsenal have experience of being involved in both competitions, whereas this is a first for Tottenham. The stats suggest this travelling for European games does have an impact on Premier League form.
What do they need?
They certainly don’t need to strengthen in midfield, but I think Redknapp might be looking to improve other areas in the summer transfer window. Benoit Assou-Ekotto is a bit of a ‘hit and miss’ player in my opinion and could be replaced in the summer depending on who else is available. I’m a big fan of Jermaine Defoe and having Peter Crouch can always be effective, but Spurs have been linked with quite a few strikers across Europe, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see an addition in that department.
Premier League prediction
5th - I struggled to pick between Manchester City and Tottenham for 4th and 5th place, but I just feel City will just edge Spurs out in the end. I can see Spurs getting past Milan in the next phase of the Champions League and, as mentioned before, think this venture could take its toll on their Premier League form. I realise City too are involved in Europe but they have a huge squad and a little more experience than Spurs do in balancing the two.
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